One of our findings is a forecast model of the growth of
innovation. Another finding gives evidence regarding the
existence of the so-called 『Cultivation Effect』, which
describes a 4-year time lag for the problem at hand.
We attempt to gain insight from the General Adoption Model
that might explain and forecast people』s selection
preferences with respect to products, services, events, and
For the empirical study, we have collected empirical data on
the behavior of internet users in Taiwan over the last ten
years. Our model provided reliable fits and forecasts for
subsequent use rates. (In fact, at the end of 1999, one of
the authors announced the first alert of the 『dot com crisis』
that happened within the next three months.)
We also discuss the potential applications of this model in
innovation, investment, marketing strategy, and decision
making, which we expect to be profound.