One of our
findings is a forecast model of the growth of innovation.
Another finding gives evidence regarding the existence of the
so-called ‘Cultivation Effect’, which describes a 4-year time
lag for the problem at hand.
We attempt to
gain insight from the General Adoption Model that might
explain and forecast people’s selection preferences with
respect to products, services, events, and activities.
For the
empirical study, we have collected empirical data on the
behavior of internet users in Taiwan over the last ten years.
Our model provided reliable fits and forecasts for subsequent
use rates. (In fact, at the end of 1999, one of the authors
announced the first alert of the ‘dot com crisis’ that
happened within the next three months.)
We also discuss
the potential applications of this model in innovation,
investment, marketing strategy, and decision making, which we
expect to be profound.
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